Climate Risk Assessment & Scenario Analysis for AASB S2, ISSB and TCFD Compliance

Before any scenario can be modelled, you need to know which climate risks actually matter to your business — and AASB S2 requires you to show your working on that materiality judgement. We take you through:

• Risk universe mapping — a structured review of physical risks (acute events like flooding, bushfire, and cyclones, and chronic shifts like heat stress, drought, and sea-level rise) and transition risks (carbon pricing, policy and legal change, technology shifts, market and reputational risk) relevant to your sector and footprint.
• Value chain and asset-level screening — looking beyond head office to your operations, key sites, suppliers, and downstream customers, since AASB S2 expects consideration of risk across the value chain, not just direct operations.
• Materiality assessment — scoring identified risks and opportunities by likelihood and potential financial impact, so you can defend to your board and auditor why certain risks were prioritised and others weren't.
• A clear risk register — a documented, audit-ready output that becomes the direct input into your scenario analysis and your AASB S2 risk disclosures.

This is where materiality becomes evidence. We design and run scenario analyses that meet what the standard — and your auditor — will expect to see:

• Scenario selection — typically at least one low-emissions pathway (around 1.5°C, orderly transition) and one high-emissions pathway (2.5°C or more, physical risk dominant), drawing on recognised reference scenarios such as those published by the NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System) and IPCC, adapted to your sector and geography.
• Physical risk modelling — quantifying exposure of your key sites and assets to relevant hazards under each scenario and time horizon (near, medium, and long term), using available hazard and climate projection data.
• Transition risk modelling — assessing how carbon pricing, policy shifts, changing customer demand, and technology change could affect your costs, revenue, and competitive position under each pathway.
• Financial and strategic translation — converting technical scenario outputs into plain-language implications for your strategy, capital allocation, and business resilience, so the findings are usable by your board, not just your compliance team.
• Board-ready reporting — a scenario analysis report structured to map directly onto AASB S2's disclosure requirements, giving your auditor a clear, traceable line from risk identification through to disclosed outcome.

 AASB S2 asks a question many businesses haven't had to answer formally before: who, exactly, is overseeing climate risk — and how well can you evidence it? 

This is often the section of a disclosure that draws the closest scrutiny from auditors and boards, because it's less about numbers and more about demonstrating genuine oversight. We help you build it out properly:

• Board and management oversight review — assessing how climate-related risks and opportunities are currently considered at board and executive level, and where oversight roles, committee structures, or reporting lines need to be formalised or clarified.
• Roles and responsibilities mapping — defining who is accountable for identifying, assessing, and managing climate risk day to day, and how that connects up to board-level reporting, so your governance disclosure reflects a structure that actually operates, not one built for the report.
• Integration with existing risk management — embedding climate risk into your existing enterprise risk management framework rather than running it as a separate, parallel process, so it's assessed with the same rigour as your other material business risks.
• Strategy alignment — reviewing how the risks and opportunities identified in your climate risk assessment and scenario analysis are reflected in your actual business strategy, capital allocation, and planning — a link AASB S2 specifically expects you to be able to demonstrate.
• Metrics and targets governance — establishing how progress against your climate-related metrics and targets is tracked, reviewed, and reported internally, so your disclosed targets are backed by a process for monitoring them over time.
• Governance narrative drafting —  translating all of the above into clear, audit-ready disclosure language for your Sustainability Report that your board is comfortable standing behind.

We measure and report your Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions in line with the GHG Protocol, forming the quantitative backbone of your Sustainability Report. 

We bring risk assessment, scenario analysis, emissions data, and governance disclosures together into a Sustainability Report structured for AASB S2 compliance and ready for assurance and lodgement alongside your financial statements.